Month: November 2024

Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps Bolts Up Daily more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).

Hot Trainers

English King was impressive at Lingfield last time, Kameko is a Guineas winner who needs to show he has the required stamina and Aidan O’Brien’s battalion are all capable of big improvement. MEETINGOFTHEWATERS is lightly raced and has a beautiful light weight. He will need to settle but if he does, he can be ahead of his mark. The latter won at the Cheltenham Festival under Conor O’Dwyer – and Russell teamed up with the staying chaser for most of his runs after a 658-day injury break. Other top horses he has ridden include Solwhit, the 2013 World Hurdle winner and 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition.

Ascot Tips

Nothing looks value at that sort of a price, but owner J P McManus has met his objective of getting to the Festival with a chance. He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he’s won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles.

Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1’s

For an extended edge at the bookies, be sure to brush up on the bestCheltenham Festival betting offerswith Betting.co.uk. A good juvenile a couple of seasons ago and third to Aucunrisque in last year’s Betfair Hurdle off 133, I don’t think he’s done with yet in these major handicap races and is definitely being overlooked on this occasion. Sorry to ram this home, but if you’re a beginner not prepared to spend a bit of time on study you’re always going to be a beginner. If you get as much fun as I do from studying form, watching past races and attempting to solve each puzzle, it won’t seem like work at all.

• And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland.
• The course which has produced the most winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out.
• Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best.
• That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus.
• He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ‘nothing between them’ top of the market.
• A wide-open renewal of this stamina-sapping Grade 1 hurdle prize, where SEABANK BISTRO is taken to cause an upset at attractive odds.
• Eight of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating of 147 or higher.
• Granary at Hunt Court, CheltenhamCosy and chic, the Granary at Hunt Court offers an idyllic escape.

Horse Racing Tips: Fran Berry’s Friday night flutters at Dundalk

They collectively won 32 of the 39 qualifying races, for a profit of 80 points at SP, and a tasty 165 points at BSP. Only five of the 102 horses sent off shorter than 9/1 prevailed, for a 66 point loss at SP (60 points at BSP). Chuck out horses aged nine and above, and be unforgiving with those aged seven and eight.

The jockeys’ championships

You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Ayr Racecourse section for links to these. Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap, that stallion Invincible Spirit has produced 2 winners (2019,2016). The course which has produced the most winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap is York, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at York last time out.

Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365

Hovering over  the coloured blobs in the ‘Race Speed vs Par’ column (title unhelpfully obscured in the image above), shows the sectional percentages for our OMC (Opening / Mid-race  / Closing) format. Identifying front runners is is a challenge, but these tables articulate unequivocally why it is worth our time to attempt that act of clairvoyance. Geegeez Pace Maps, available for every race, assist considerably with the challenge. Day 2 of the Cheltenham festival has been equally as magical as day 1, as we really have been treated to some incredible action. The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.

50 – Coral Cup – Marlborough’s preview and tips

He will have to be at his very best because he takes on two previous winners of this race. Of the rest, Rumstar has run some big races in top handicaps and has every chance of outrunning his insulting odds. The selection’s stablemate Hamish won this in 2022 and is in his element when the mud is flying. The main concern with him is that he has run poorly on his last two starts.

Timeform

William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014). Silvestre De Sousa winners have been with Thunderball (2012) and Aberama Gold (2020). As with all the reports, you can set parameters at the top to filter the day’s qualifiers. And there are various other filtering options – for instance, I’m looking at the Course 5 Year Form view here, which tells me Harry Fry has run two handicap debutants at Plumpton since 19th December 2017.

More Australian success in King Charles III Stakes

The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.

The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years. It includes all-weather, flat turf, hurdles and chases, UK and Ireland. Unless there are two or more front-running types in the field, the balance of probabilities is that the race will be steadily run with an acceleration in the latter part of the contest. That suits horses which are able to change gear, i.e. accelerate, late in the play. Many horses cannot, and for these more galloping types, field size truncation is not good. The final component in my facilitation/differentiation quintet is field size.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, December 23

Get Your Tips Out’s comprehensive coverage extends to global races, including Dubai, enabling punters to access insights on a broad spectrum of events and enhancing their betting strategies with diverse market knowledge. By considering such expert tips and a variety of opinions, punters can navigate through the complexities of horse racing and increase their chances of winning. A 3lb penalty for that success leaves Eilean Dubh 2lb well in according to the British Horseracing Authority handicapper’s maths, and a draw in stall six is another aid to his chance. In one of the trickiest betting races of the week, Noble Dynasty has to make the short-list, along with Jimi Hendrix, Sinjaari and Lawful Command. MAKE MY DAY is the choice to improve on his record of a win and a second from two visits to Goodwood. Successful in spells with John Gosden and Ralph Beckett, the son of Galileo was off the track for 511 days before making the frame twice from three attempts over hurdles.

They’re off in the Cross Country Chase

She should have plenty more to come over this trip and, unlike the favourite, we know for certain that she’ll stay. In the possibly the most open Derby in recent memory, you can give a chance to almost all the runners. He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start. MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.

• Banbridge is more straightforward and Balco Coastal is interesting at a bigger price, too.
• “I’m delighted for my team, everyone works so hard at home.
• Anyway, macro questions like that don’t belong before an obstacle has been cleared so let’s get back to business.
• Divine Comedy burst out of the pack to chase him down, but the 20-1 chance – who went for 450,000 guineas as a yearling – held on by half a length.

Cheltenham preview update

My opinion is that those two perspectives are not mutually exclusive and both hold water. Yet another former Festival winner is Indefatigable whose 2020 Martin Pipe win was a red letter day for trainer Paul Webber but also for geegeez-sponsored then conditional rider, Rex Dingle. Rex came with the proverbial wet sail there, weaving through tiring rivals up the run in to present the mare on the line, a style which has proven more difficult to pull off in smaller field, more steadily run contests since. The best fancied of the Irish party is the Willie Mullins-trained Blue Lord, whose hitherto unbeaten trio over fences culminated with Grade 1 success in the Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival. His hurdles form was better than respectable – he’d have been comfortably closest to Appreciate It in last year’s Supreme but for tumbling at the last – and he’s looked assured in his leaping thus far.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips

It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting. Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another. A lot more returns and respective debuts throughout the week before we got to the season openers at Cheltenham and Aintree. After all the hard work there was just the one bet for us which was successful. It can be seen as frustrating to have put in all that work but also rewarding in the long term to have amassed a great deal of valuable future information.

• The  link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here.
• Willie also has Zarak The Brave, who is at least vaguely credible for the frame at a price.
• 13 of the last 14 winners had finished top 4 in all completed Chases.
• I don’t know how we messed it up, but that’s behind us now.
• With form horses Coo Star Sivola and Global Stage having disappointed on their latest starts – a difficult race to assess.

Ayr Gold Cup Trends

In other words, this is a completely different race from the one which carried the same name 15 years ago. Back then, journeyman Corinthians on massive-priced pigs in a poke in huge fields played a version of ‘last man or woman standing’. Now, field sizes are smaller, the quality of bipeds and quadrupeds alike is higher, and it is consequently a far more predictable affair.

• Remarkably, backing all such runners returned an SP profit of 35 points.
• Dating back centuries, horseracing has been one of the iconic landmarks of UK culture.
• The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.
• Let’s say that we wish to place a bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup through William Hill horse racing.
• Just an even gallop in prospect in all likelihood despite the large field.
• MITBAAHY is fancied to win the battle of the fastest horses on Goodwood’s card in the King George Qatar Stakes (3.35).
• She was desperately unlucky not to win the 1,000 Guineas here in May and stepping up in trip in two French Group 1s has not really suited.
• He’s no longer an each way price so I hope he’ll go very close to winning.

Royal Ascot 2024 day one review & replays Rosallion wins St James’s Palace Stakes

Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.

More Grade 1 action, you lucky people, as the first foray over fences, the Arkle Challenge Trophy, follows the Supreme. Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we’re left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting. The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced). All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.

My Mate Mozzie was only a length and a half behind Found A Fifty but hasn’t raced this year, and his best form looks to be on better ground. Mistergif led on his sole Irish start though that was a maiden hurdle only, while Tullyhill has led the last twice. Firefox has also led in two of his last three, likewise Tellherthename. Even to fast looks the most likely pace setup on the scant evidence we have. Mystical Power runs in the green and gold of JP McManus, but is co-owned by Susannah Ricci and Mrs John Magnier.

Things could be teed up once more for LARRY, who nearly always saves his best for Ascot and has won a couple of times coming from off the pace over this course and distance in the past. He was pulled-up by Fergus Gillard on that occasion but he’s such an in-and-out sort that you’re going to have to overlook the odd one of those before the case for him winning becomes that bit clearer. She won this race 12 months ago and is back from a 3lb higher mark with every chance again. Racing Post Members’ ClubRacing Post Members’ Club is the ultimate community for racing fans and punters, providing award-winning journalism, expert insight, comment and opinion, and tools designed to give you an edge. Few sports are as easy to watch as racing and nobody need ever miss any of the many thousand races run each year.

Novices’ Chase result

44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.

It’s a day for hats

The long term disciplined approach is essential in true professional betting. I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.

Tips for Ascot: Best value bets on Saturday December 23

It has been the obvious race for him since last year and we’ve just had to creep there. The owners have been very good and said if that is what you want to do then go for it. “Luke got it right and there was enough room for him to keep pushing and get where we wanted. It was one of those races where I can’t remember one going so well since Alborada got the pacemaker and High-Rise didn’t (in the 1999 Champion Stakes). “I was very concerned about the draw, I had a thoroughly bad day when I found out his position.

Showcase Trophy Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends (Showcase Meeting)

• Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.
• She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections.
• Horses that finished 5th or worse on their prep run have accounted for just eight winners from 282 runners (SR 2.8%) for a hefty BSP loss of £129.01 (ROI -45.8%).
• Kilbeg King got low at several of his fences at Ascot but still stayed on dourly at the end to force the winner to pull out all the stops.
• Tom Eaves winners have been with Nameitwhatyoulike (2015) and Magical Spirit (2021).
• From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.
• Likewise, horses will have their own range of requirements, the two main ones being distance and ground.

More Grade 1 action, you lucky people, as the first foray over fences, the Arkle Challenge Trophy, follows the Supreme. Somewhat downgraded by the absence of a number of high profile horses, most recently and notably Marine Nationale, the reigning Supreme champ, we’re left with a competitive but trappy wagering challenge. Just when I was anticipating diving into the Coral Cup or the Grand Annual, Matt presents me with the Champion Bumper! However, upon closer inspection, it seems more like a handicap in terms of the betting. The last mare to win the RSA was way back in 1981 (all 10 female runners this century have finished unplaced). All 27 horses fitted with headgear have been beaten this century.

50 Coral Cup (Handicap, Grade 3, 2m5f)

That doesn’t mean Ireland doesn’t have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred). Willie also has Il Etait Temps, soundly enough beaten by GW at Limerick in that Faugheen but a winner either side, most recently in the G1 Irish Arkle, also at the DRF. He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one’s, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month.

• A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR.
• With six days until tapes rise on the Supreme, we can hope that all will hereafter be more serene, barring the perennial raft of late scratches and shock race switcheroos.
• When it comes to promotions for big race events, it’s always worth shopping around.
• The nature of most HC1 plays is that we’re grappling in the dark, with every chance that the horse is just not very able and runs a clunker.
• If you’re looking for racing tips, see our completely free daily horse racing tips from our experts in our Daily Horse Racing tips section.
• There’s plenty of content about how to use the geegeez toolkit elsewhere – try this link for a run down, so in this post I want to consider the other term, differentiators.
• There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway.

Two Cheltenham Festival Side Bets to Consider

• In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more.
• Here, he has just 121, a full stone below his French rating.
• Clicking on the trainer’s name reveals today’s runner(s), and clicking the little up arrow to the left hand side displays inline the relevant past performances – here we can see that one of the pair won and the other was third.
• MAHLER MISSION has been kept fresh since a fine second in the Coral Gold Cup last Autumn.
• A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo’s brace of GC’s, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions).
• His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry.
• Those unconsidered athletes have bagged nine of the 50 races for a profit of 23 points at SP and 331 points at BSP (thanks almost entirely to one enormous return).
• He is an unbeaten domestic, defending a point and three hurdle scores, the most recent of which was in the Listed Sidney Banks at Huntingdon, where he beat the previous Grade 1 winner and subsequent Grade 2 second, Jango Baie.
• He beat 13 rivals the first day and eleven the second and, well, he just keeps winning.

He is now 14lb higher in the handicap, but his Cheltenham win two starts ago gives him prospects here as the second top weight. Day one of the Newbury Greatwood meeting with tomorrow’s Greatwood Gold Cup being the highlight. The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course. The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.

Urgent hunt for missing boy, 14, last seen at train station five days ago

KARMOLOGY looks the solid option in this competitive fillies’ handicap. She’s usually very consistent but never showed up at Yarmouth last time. Her earlier form is very useful and she can give weight and a beating to her rivals. The selection has no room for error off top-weight, but no one rides the straight course at Ascot better than Spencer. The micro-systems above will provide plenty of action for those who like a mechanical approach.

My big 3-1 NAP loves soft ground and heads to Ascot in great form

It was a fourth Champion Chase for Henderson since Finian’s Rainbow broke his duck in the race in 2012 and his 60th winner in all at the meeting. Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another. A lot more returns and respective debuts throughout the week before we got to the season openers at Cheltenham and Aintree. After all the hard work there was just the one bet for us which was successful. It can be seen as frustrating to have put in all that work but also rewarding in the long term to have amassed a great deal of valuable future information.

10 Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m4f)

• In a deep contest, the likes of La Pasionaira, Queen Of Soldiers and Treasure are all capable of getting involved at generous prices.
• A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.
• Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.
• That’s a 3.41% strike rate for a loss of 119 points (ROI -40.61).
• If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez’ Query Tool.
• The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition.
• The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.

In other words, this is a completely different race from the one which carried the same name 15 years ago. Back then, journeyman Corinthians on massive-priced pigs in a poke in huge fields played a version of ‘last man or woman standing’. Now, field sizes are smaller, the quality of bipeds and quadrupeds alike is higher, and it is consequently a far more predictable affair.

14/1 looks a very playable each way proposition, with the NRNB proviso. It is also true that RP has been dishing up in deep ground and it remains to be seen how he handles quicker terrain. For all of those reservations, he has been ultra-impressive visually, and his stamina combined with fluent jumping makes him a natural for a staying test like this. There are other credible contenders in the field, not least Galvin, but if Royale Pagaille lines up here rather than his other entries, he’ll take some beating.

All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences. Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours. He’s stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn’t look the most obvious manoeuvre (that’s easy for me to spell!).

Durbanville Tips

The opening day always majors on speed, quality, and drama from the get-go, with a double-barrelled Grade 1 two-mile novice volley to kick us off. Irish-trained runners have more than twice the strike rate of their counterparts trained in UK. Moreover, they’ve enjoyed a 55p in the £ difference in their returns, and a clear differential between the A/E indices.

Recent form shows how well they’ve been running, Last Run is the number of days since their last outing and the forecast is the forecast decimal odds according to Timeform. As with any form of betting, there are always risks involved. While Free Horse Racing Tips can increase your chances of winning, there is no guarantee of success.

Cheltenham Festival: The 15 year View

I thought he was very impressive that day at Cork and with this race being in similar conditions I’m expecting a similar performance. It was disappointing to see him beaten at odds-on last time out at Clonmel but it looked a tactical small field race off a steady pace which wouldn’t have suited him, and I think he was done for a bit of toe up the straight. The Mare’s Chase is being billed as a match this year and while I do think both Allegoire De Vassy and Imprevious are brilliant mares, I think the market has overlooked MAGIC DAZE.

• That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests.
• Racing to the second last he switched to the outside, found some better ground and a bit of daylight, and in a few strides had gathered in all but Min.
• Both of Henry de Bromhead’s mares present each-way opportunities.
• The Daily Double consists of both the NAP and NB and is a great way of covering our two best bets of the day to maximise profit.
• What I mean by that is, horses who are a much shorter price than the second horse in the betting tend to do best here at the festival.
• He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is.
• I’m going to go for MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, he should get the distance fine and you can’t argue with Willie Mullins’ runners in these big races.

We’re talking the likes of Cause Of Causes, Tiger Roll, and Delta Work, all of them ‘medalling’ in the Grand National subsequently. And all of them trained by Gordon Elliott (by proxy in one case), a man who trained a National winner before he’d trained a winner in his native Ireland. It’s pretty clumsy and there’s no getting away from that fact.

Relegate wins the Champion Bumper

Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.

• He’s stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn’t look the most obvious manoeuvre (that’s easy for me to spell!).
• For De Sousa it was confirmation of a return to the very top in Britain, after his spell in Hong Kong ended prematurely following a 10-month suspension imposed for breaching betting rules.
• I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race.
• These vary between different providers and often change from year to year, so it’s usually a good idea to do some homework on the available promotions and bonus terms ahead of the bigger racing events.
• Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute.
• The five-timer-seeking Caius Chorister is worth throwing into the melting pot, in company with Night Of Luxury and Sheer Rocks.
• There are plenty of top class efforts in that sequence, a positive which has to be balanced against the busy campaign; that said, she’s had only the one run in 2022.

A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo’s brace of GC’s, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home. The nearly-four-miler as it has become known is in many ways the bellwether for the meeting and indeed the sport. It’s a really tough heat with even fewer clues than your average Festival handicap.

The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.

Of course, we know about the dominance of Irish winners at recent Festivals but there is still plenty on which to chew in relation to possible value edges. Although horses that either finished 3rd LTO or 5th or worse have made a profit, this is down to big prices skewing the figures. As we can see, strike rates are low across the board, but if there is an area to concentrate on, it does seem to be last Bolts Up Daily day winners. This is because they are the biggest group, have by far the best record win wise, and they have just about broken even. Of course, most recently Il Etait Temps won ‘that’ race in which HD dived and FV bombed. Although he was a bit awkward early in transit that day, he powered through the line and was just on ten lengths clear of second-placed Inthepocket, Dark Raven a neck back in third.

True, since transferred to Closutton he’s won his maiden by a street, but again that form looks shallower than the toddlers’ end at your local baths. He’s pretty exposed is this chap and he’s shown very little. Of course, he can win, but there’s now’t in the book to say he should. Minella Indo won the Gold Cup in 2021 and was second a year later; pulled up in the Blue Riband twelve months ago, his sights have been lowered considerably and he had a reconnaissance visit in the December handicap over track and trip. There he conceded a stone and a half to Latenightpass but was beaten only five lengths or so. He’d started out this season winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown but was last of the four in the Grade 1 at Down Royal after which this new plan was hatched.

If you’re John Butler or Mick Appleby – with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft – you don’t have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually. He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career. He has a huge career ahead of him and the question now is, does he go chasing, or does he remain over hurdles with a route towards the 2022 Champion hurdle.

Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The  link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.

Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race. All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.

The third and fifth from the Betfair finished 1-2 in the Imperial Cup at the weekend so that form looks solid. In between times, Iberico Lord was well beaten at Ascot and perhaps it was a combination of the slower pace and faster turf that did for him. It should be at least a little bit softer here but whether there’s much pace in the race remains to be seen. Whilst he’s obviously progressive, he’s got about a stone and a half to find on official ratings if the favourite runs to within a pound or three of his mark. He’d previously been only 1 1/2 lengths behind Stay Away Fay on softer ground at Sandown where he travelled strongly through the race before being continously hampered by a loose horse around the 3rd last fence. He still cruised upside the eventual winner as the pair jumped the last and kept on nicely up the run in but wasn’t quite able to keep a straight line and keep tabs with Stay Away Fay in the last 100 yards.

CHECKANDCHALLENGE is a lightly raced and improving three-year-old who looks well up to making his mark in Group 3 company. Back on the Flat, Make My Day ran a fine second to Super Superjack at Ascot in May before again taking the silver medal behind Black Kalanisi at Goodwood the following month. On both occasions, the six-year-old was strong at the finish over two miles and things didn’t go to plan when my selection returned 13 th of 19 – Reshoun was ahead in fifth – in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last month. In the Oaks, only eight runners go to post in one of the weakest runnings of the Classic I can remember.

That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.

The historic Royal Artillery Gold Cup is restricted to military amateur riders. Hello George is of interest, being potentially well handicapped. He is very lightly raced and is expected to improve from his reappearance effort.

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He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat. On that evidence, he could well be above average, in which case he should be capable of giving away the weight. The Championship race of the day was remarkably won by another mare making it 2-0 to the girls so far. She really relished the jumping test, and travelled so well behind the leading bunch throughout. Her jumping was immaculate and she managed to avoid all of the hustle and bustle that was happening after the last to catch Chacun pour soi up the home straight. Following this Monkfish stepped up and won the Brown Advisory Chase without needing to be at his best to do so.